Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-4 at loanDepot park on September 23, 2023, in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win begin at a near coin-flip 49 percent before finishing at 100 percent. Miami struck early, plating three runs in the bottom of the first inning to establish control, and added a run in the fourth to push the lead to four. Milwaukee mounted its most significant threat in the top of the sixth, where Christian Yelich delivered a double that shifted win probability by plus 9.9 percent, and Carlos Santana followed with a home run off A.J. Puk that swung the model's estimate by plus 21.3 percent, bringing the Brewers within one at 4-3 and briefly tightening what had been a comfortable Miami advantage.

The pivotal moment in the final stages came in the bottom of the eighth, where Bryan De La Cruz singled off Joel Payamps for a plus 10.6 percent win-probability swing, and a fielder's choice out by Jon Berti added another plus 8.4 percent to Miami's favor as the Marlins pushed across what proved to be their decisive fifth run. De La Cruz was the game's most impactful offensive player by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a plus 25.5 percent WPA and a plus 1.4 RE24. Santana led Milwaukee's offensive contributors at plus 13.3 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 despite the team's late deficit, while Jake Burger posted the game's top RE24 mark among position players at plus 2.6. On the mound, Miami's bullpen carried the win home, with Tanner Scott leading all pitchers at plus 15.2 percent WPA, followed by Hoby Milner at plus 10.8 percent and Andrew Nardi at plus 10.6 percent.