Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

Boston held off Chicago 3-2 at Fenway Park on September 22, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 65 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent by the final out. The game was scoreless through four innings before Boston broke through with a run in the fifth, but Chicago answered with two runs in the sixth on a Trayce Thompson double off Garrett Whitlock, which added 14.9 percent to Chicago's win probability, followed by an Andrew Vaughn single that added another 10.0 percent. Those two hits briefly swung the momentum toward the White Sox, giving them a 2-1 lead heading into the late innings.

Boston reclaimed control in the bottom of the eighth against Garrett Crochet, stringing together three consecutive run-scoring plays that together represented the decisive sequence of the game. Alex Verdugo drew a walk that added 10.2 percent to Boston's win probability, Rafael Devers followed with a single worth another 10.4 percent, and Masataka Yoshida then delivered the biggest single swing of the night, a go-ahead single that added 23.4 percent to Boston's win probability and gave the Red Sox a lead they would not relinquish.

Among the game's top performers, Yoshida finished as Boston's most impactful batter with a WPA of plus-14.5 and an RE24 of plus-0.4, while Trevor Story led all batters with a WPA of plus-16.5 and an RE24 of plus-0.6. Thompson was the standout for Chicago, posting a WPA of plus-12.2 and an RE24 of plus-0.8 on the strength of his sixth-inning double. On the mound, Touki Toussaint was the most valuable pitcher by win probability added at plus-23.3, with Chris Martin at plus-15.2 and Chris Sale at plus-14.5 rounding out the top three for Boston's staff.