Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Baltimore Orioles 9-8 on September 22, 2023, at Progressive Field in a game that swung dramatically in its final innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 40 percent pre-game home win probability for Cleveland and closed at 100 percent, reflecting a finish that required two separate late-inning voltage spikes before the Guardians could finally secure the outcome.

The game's most consequential single swing came in the top of the ninth when Aaron Hicks doubled off Emmanuel Clase, a hit that shifted win probability by plus-70.0 percent in Baltimore's favor and briefly made the Orioles the heavy favorites to steal the game. Hicks finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-59.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1. Cleveland answered immediately in the bottom half, where David Fry delivered a double off Yennier Cano worth plus-53.1 percent in win probability, and Andrés Giménez followed with another double off Cano worth plus-25.1 percent, the two hits together erasing Baltimore's lead and handing Cleveland the walkoff margin. Fry's overall WPA of plus-50.6 percent and RE24 of plus-1.3 made him the decisive figure in the home half. Earlier, Anthony Santander had contributed a single off Enyel De Los Santos in the seventh inning worth plus-20.3 percent WPA, finishing with plus-28.8 percent WPA and a game-high RE24 of plus-3.2 among position players. A fielding error on a Myles Straw plate appearance in the fourth inning, charged during a Dean Kremer at-bat, added plus-12.4 percent for Cleveland and contributed to the three-run frame that briefly gave the Guardians breathing room. On the mound, Reynaldo López led Cleveland's pitching staff with plus-10.8 percent WPA, followed by Tyler Wells at plus-8.0 percent and James Karinchak at plus-7.3 percent.