St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | 4 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 on September 22, 2023 at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 60% home win probability and closing at 100% by game's end. The Cardinals managed eight hits without an error but could not overcome a Padres offense that collected 11 hits and received clutch contributions from their bullpen in the decisive late innings.
The game turned on a pair of pivotal eighth-inning swings separated by only a fraction of win probability. Jordan Walker delivered a triple off Luis García in the top of the eighth that shifted the win probability by plus 26.9%, pulling the Cardinals to within a run and setting up what appeared to be a genuine comeback opportunity. That threat evaporated when Michael Siani struck out against Robert Suarez, costing St. Louis 11.8 percentage points of win probability, and Manny Machado answered immediately in the bottom half with a home run off Matthew Liberatore that swung the model's estimate by plus 27.1%, effectively sealing the outcome. Machado had already provided the game's first significant swing in the sixth inning, when his home run off Dakota Hudson added 13.8 percentage points, countering Masyn Winn's solo shot off Matt Waldron that had shifted 13.6 points in St. Louis's favor just moments earlier.
Machado finished as the game's dominant individual, accumulating plus 42.6% WPA and plus 2.8 RE24 across his two home runs, while Walker's plus 25.6% WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 represented St. Louis's most meaningful offensive contribution. On the pitching side, Robert Suarez led all pitchers at plus 28.6% WPA, with Tom Cosgrove adding plus 15.6% and Drew VerHagen contributing plus 9.8%, as the Padres bullpen collectively protected the lead and closed out the Cardinals in the ninth.