Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 | 1 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers dismantled the Miami Marlins 16-1 at loanDepot park on September 22, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a near coin-flip — a 48% pre-game home win probability for Miami — into a complete rout that ended with the model placing the Marlins' chances of winning at 0%.
The game was effectively decided in the second inning, when Milwaukee sent a parade of batters to the plate and scored 12 runs. The pivotal sequence began against Bryan Hoeing, with William Contreras delivering a single that registered a +4.4% win-probability swing, followed by a Mark Canha double that added another +3.9%. The inning's most impactful moment, however, came on a Contreras lineout that still generated a +12.0% win-probability swing — a reflection of how thoroughly loaded the bases and situation were at that moment. After Hoeing gave way to Steven Okert, Josh Donaldson drove the knife deeper with a home run worth +7.7% in win probability. On the Miami side, a Jesús Sánchez strikeout against Corbin Burnes in the bottom of the second registered as the frame's most damaging moment for the Marlins, costing them -11.5% in win probability as their comeback window quietly closed.
Contreras finished as the game's top offensive performer by a wide margin, accumulating +16.4% in win-probability added and a RE24 of +0.9, with Donaldson contributing +7.9% WPA and a +0.8 RE24 of his own. Mark Canha added +3.9% WPA alongside the game's best RE24 among Milwaukee's top performers at +1.2, underscoring his efficiency in run-environment terms. On the mound, Corbin Burnes led all pitchers with a +12.2% WPA, keeping Miami's lineup in check while his offense built an insurmountable lead. Milwaukee finished with 15 hits against the Marlins' 5, and the model leans heavily toward crediting the second-inning eruption as the singular turning point that rendered the final eight innings largely academic.