Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves routed the Washington Nationals 10-3 at Nationals Park on September 21, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from early on, as Washington's pre-game win probability of 34% collapsed entirely to 0% by the final out. The game turned decisively in the third inning, when Atlanta sent a parade of hitters through against starter Jake Irvin and did not look back. The Braves plated five runs in the frame, with Ronald Acuña Jr. delivering the single biggest swing of the night, a triple off Irvin that shifted win probability by plus 9.1 percentage points in Atlanta's favor. Ozzie Albies followed with a double worth plus 7.2 points, Austin Riley added a single at plus 6.7 points, and Travis d'Arnaud contributed another single worth plus 6.2 points, turning the inning into a sustained unraveling for Washington's pitching staff. The only notable moment working against Atlanta came one inning earlier, when Orlando Arcia grounded out to produce the game's largest negative swing, a minus 7.4 point shift, though it ultimately amounted to little consequence given the offensive explosion that followed.
Travis d'Arnaud finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 9.0, with an RE24 of plus 1.5, while Ozzie Albies posted nearly identical win-probability value at plus 8.9 and led all position players with an RE24 of plus 3.2, underscoring his central role in the Braves' run production. Austin Riley rounded out the top three offensive contributors at plus 7.4 WPA and plus 1.2 RE24. On the mound, Max Fried led Atlanta's pitching staff with a plus 4.2 WPA contribution, followed by Andrés Machado at plus 3.4, as the two combined to keep Washington's lineup firmly in check through the middle innings. Atlanta's 18-hit attack produced clean baseball with zero errors, while the Nationals managed eight hits but could not generate sustained offense against a Braves staff that the DiamondIQ model credited as the stronger side from the opening pitch.