Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| KC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - | 6 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-2 at Kauffman Stadium on September 20, 2023, handing Cleveland a lopsided loss by three errors on the road. The DiamondIQ model opened with Kansas City as a 40 percent home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily toward certainty as the Royals built their advantage, ultimately closing at 100 percent in the model's estimate.
The game's pivotal stretch came in the first four innings, where the win-probability needle swung repeatedly. Kansas City struck first in the bottom of the first when Michael Massey struck out against Lucas Giolito, a sequence the model registered as a 9.2 percent swing in the Royals' favor given the situation's leverage. Cleveland briefly responded in the top of the fourth when Myles Straw lofted a sacrifice fly off Zack Greinke to plate two runs, a play that added 11.0 percent to the Guardians' win probability and represented the single largest positive swing of the game for Cleveland. However, Straw had also been the key negative in the top of the second, striking out in a high-leverage spot against Greinke for a 10.9 percent swing against Cleveland. The Royals answered immediately in the bottom of the fourth, where Bobby Witt Jr. delivered a single off Giolito worth 8.9 percent in win probability, continuing to chip away at any Cleveland foothold.
On the individual ledger, Bobby Witt Jr. paced Kansas City's offense with a combined WPA of plus-15.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-0.9, while Drew Waters contributed plus-7.6 percent WPA and Edward Olivares added plus-5.9 percent. The most dominant performance of the night belonged to Angel Zerpa on the mound, whose outing generated plus-28.5 percent in win probability added, making him the single most impactful player in the game by that measure. Zack Greinke and James Karinchak each contributed modest positive figures at plus-3.5 and plus-3.3 percent respectively. Cleveland's three errors ultimately proved costly against a Royals lineup that needed no additional help.