San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - | 7 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks handled the San Francisco Giants 7-1 on September 20, 2023, at Chase Field, turning what opened as a modest 57% home-win probability into a 100% certainty by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Arizona built the game's foundation early and then blew it open in the seventh, finishing with 14 hits against no errors while San Francisco managed just three hits and committed one error.
The decisive turning points arrived in the third and seventh innings. In the bottom of the third, Alek Thomas delivered a double off Logan Webb that swung win probability 10.6 percentage points in Arizona's direction, and a subsequent Ketel Marte walk off Webb added another 6.4 points, helping the Diamondbacks plate two runs in that frame. The game was functionally settled in the bottom of the seventh, when Corbin Carroll hit a home run off Ryan Walker worth 7.4 percentage points of win probability, capping a four-run inning that extended the lead to its final margin. San Francisco's best chance to push back came in the top of the seventh, when Michael Conforto's double off Merrill Kelly moved the needle 8.7 points toward the Giants, but Thairo Estrada's strikeout against Ryan Thompson immediately surrendered 7.2 points and extinguished the threat.
On the individual ledger, Carroll led all batters with a plus-12.0% WPA and plus-1.5 RE24, while Thomas posted plus-9.1% WPA and Conforto contributed plus-9.0% WPA in a losing effort. Merrill Kelly was the evening's most impactful performer overall, accumulating plus-22.0% WPA to anchor a complete Arizona effort that was never seriously challenged.