Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the St. Louis Cardinals an 8-2 defeat at Busch Stadium on September 20, 2023, building a lead early and putting the game away with a four-run ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving the Cardinals a 42 percent home win probability, but that figure fell to zero by the final out as Milwaukee controlled the contest from the third inning onward. The Brewers finished with 10 hits and committed no errors, while St. Louis managed only six hits against a Milwaukee pitching staff that consistently limited damage.

The decisive swing of the game came in the top of the fourth inning, when Tyrone Taylor connected on a home run off Zack Thompson that shifted win probability 8.9 percent in Milwaukee's favor. On the St. Louis side, Paul Goldschmidt had an opportunity to generate momentum in the bottom of the third, but his ground into a double play off Adrian Houser swung win probability 8.6 percent against the Cardinals and effectively stifled what could have been a productive inning. The Cardinals showed brief signs of life in the bottom of the seventh, when a Luken Baker walk moved the needle 5.9 percent in their direction, but José Fermín's pop out against Bryse Wilson immediately reversed that gain by 5.2 percent, and the rally never materialized. Taylor added a second home run in the ninth off Casey Lawrence for an additional 4.6 percent swing.

Taylor finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-16.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.8 across his two home runs. On the mound, Adrian Houser was the story, posting a remarkable plus-30.6 percent WPA as he repeatedly shut down Cardinals threats and kept Milwaukee's early runs more than sufficient. Bryse Wilson contributed plus-6.3 percent in relief, and Jacob Barnes added plus-4.8 percent to close out a thoroughly dominant effort for the Brewers.