MLB Recap · September 20, 2023

Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

LAA8
Final
TB3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA2400020008102
TB001002000380

The Story

The Los Angeles Angels handed the Tampa Bay Rays an 8-3 defeat at Tropicana Field on September 20, 2023, erasing what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 69 percent pre-game probability of a Rays victory. Los Angeles struck early and decisively, plating two runs in the first inning and four more in the second to build a 6-0 cushion before Tampa Bay could answer, and a two-run sixth by each side only confirmed the outcome that had effectively been decided in the game's opening frames. The Angels finished with 10 hits against two errors, while the Rays managed eight hits but none at the moments that mattered most.

The turning point of the game arrived in the second inning, when the two biggest win-probability swings of the night came in direct sequence. Jared Walsh's strikeout to lead off the top half added 15.1 percent to Los Angeles's win probability, preserving the Angels' threat by keeping the inning alive in context, while Taylor Walls's strikeout to end the Rays' bottom half swung 17.3 percent against Tampa Bay and effectively buried any hope of a home rally. Brandon Drury's home run off Aaron Civale in that same second inning added another 7.9 percent, and his overall line of plus-13.4 percent WPA and plus-4.1 RE24 made him the game's most impactful offensive player. Jo Adell contributed a plus-7.2 percent WPA performance as well, with his first-inning strikeout adding 8.2 percent to the Angels' early advantage.

On the mound, Reid Detmers was the story for Los Angeles, posting a remarkable plus-29.8 percent WPA to lead all pitchers on the night. His ability to generate weak contact and strikeouts against a Rays lineup that entered as heavy home favorites defined the game's trajectory. Harold Ramirez's pop out in the bottom of the first, which cost Tampa Bay 9.6 percent in win probability, exemplified how Detmers consistently defused Rays threats before they could develop. Jalen Beeks and Jimmy Herget combined to add another 3.9 percent WPA in relief, closing out a wire-to-wire Angels victory that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from 31 percent pre-game all the way to certainty by the final out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalTB win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 68.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Taylor Walls Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Reid Detmers
-17.3%
Jared Walsh Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Aaron Civale
+15.1%
Harold Ramírez Pop Out
Bot 1st · off Reid Detmers
-9.6%
Jo Adell Strikeout
Top 1st · off Aaron Civale
+8.2%
Brandon Drury Home Run
Top 2nd · off Aaron Civale
+7.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Brandon Drury+13.4%+4.1 RE24
Jared Walsh+12.8%+0.1 RE24
Jo Adell+7.2%-1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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