Chicago White Sox at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-3 at Nationals Park on September 19, 2023, in a game that remained tight through six innings before a decisive seventh-inning burst sealed the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Washington as a 60% favorite, and by the final out the model's estimate had reached 100%, reflecting just how thoroughly the Nationals controlled the late stages.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the seventh, when Joey Meneses connected on a home run off Bryan Shaw that shifted win probability by +45.4 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game and the blow that effectively ended Chicago's chances of a comeback. The seventh inning had already been eventful: Yoán Moncada had given the White Sox a temporary lift earlier in the frame with a home run off Jackson Rutledge that moved the needle +15.6 points, and Luis Robert Jr. had provided Chicago's first lead change with a solo shot off Rutledge in the fourth inning, good for a +11.3-point swing. Jacob Young's triple off José Ureña in the sixth added +12.8 points for Washington and helped set the table for the late-inning surge. Chicago's final rally attempt in the ninth, where Elvis Andrus lined out to Kyle Finnegan, carried a -13.5-point swing against the White Sox, extinguishing the last thread of uncertainty.

Among individual performers, Meneses finished as the game's top batter by WPA at +45.4% with a RE24 of +2.7, his home run functioning as the game's turning point in concrete run-expectancy terms as well. Moncada was the top performer on the Chicago side despite the loss, posting +22.7% WPA and a RE24 of +1.4, while Robert finished with +15.8% WPA and a matching RE24 of +1.4. On the pitching side, José Ureña led Washington's staff with a +20.2% WPA contribution, followed by Hunter Harvey at +8.1% and closer Kyle Finnegan at +6.3%, the latter two preserving the one-run lead through the final three innings.