Minnesota Twins at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins shut out the Cincinnati Reds 7-0 on September 19, 2023, at Great American Ball Park, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Reds win from 53% before first pitch to 0% by the final out. Minnesota scored in five of nine innings, building its lead methodically against a Cincinnati club that managed just four hits and committed an error while never threatening to score.

The decisive swings came in the middle innings, beginning in the fourth when Ryan Jeffers hit a home run off Alex Young that added 10.9 percentage points to Minnesota's win probability. The Reds had a chance to respond in the bottom half, but Tyler Stephenson's lineout off Kenta Maeda instead swung probability 5.3 points further against Cincinnati. The sixth inning sealed it more firmly when Edouard Julien singled off Ben Lively for the single biggest play of the game at plus 11.7 points of win probability, part of a two-run frame. Willi Castro added a home run off Lively in the seventh for another 4.3-point swing, and Joey Votto's groundout in the second off Maeda had been an earlier 4.1-point drain on Cincinnati's chances.

Individually, Julien was the top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 13.2 points with a RE24 of plus 1.8, followed by Jeffers at plus 9.5 points and Matt Wallner at plus 7.4 points with a RE24 of plus 1.2. On the mound, Kenta Maeda was dominant, generating plus 27.1 points of win probability across his outing, the clear anchor of the pitching performance. Daniel Duarte added plus 4.8 points and Kody Funderburk contributed plus 3.0 in relief as Minnesota's staff combined to hold Cincinnati scoreless across all nine innings.