Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers walked off the Detroit Tigers 3-2 on September 19, 2023 at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 69% pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100%. Detroit struck first in the opening inning and added to its lead in the third on a Parker Meadows home run off Ryan Pepiot, a swing that shifted win probability 10.2 points in the Tigers' favor. Los Angeles began its climb back in the fourth when J.D. Martinez connected for a solo home run off Tyler Holton, a plus-11.4% swing that tightened the game, and the Dodgers pulled even in the eighth on a David Peralta double off Alex Lange that added 20.8 points to Los Angeles's win probability.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the ninth when Max Muncy singled off Lange to plate the winning run, a hit the DiamondIQ model valued at plus-37.4% in win probability and the single largest swing of the game. That walk-off capped a two-run Dodger ninth and overshadowed what had been a strong outing from the Detroit bullpen. Freddie Freeman's double-play grounder off Jason Foley in the seventh had briefly cost Los Angeles 12.8 points of win probability and kept the Tigers in front heading into the late innings, but Lange surrendered both the tying and winning runs across the eighth and ninth to absorb the loss.

Among individuals, Muncy finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-25.3%, while Martinez contributed plus-19.9% and Tyler Nevin added plus-14.2% for the Dodgers. On the pitching side, Holton led Detroit's staff with a plus-20.4% WPA mark, followed by Foley at plus-17.1% and Beau Brieske at plus-14.1%, a trio that kept Los Angeles at bay deep into the contest before Lange's late struggles proved decisive.