MLB Recap · September 19, 2023

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics: Final Score & Recap

SEA7
Final
OAK2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA0101004017110
OAK000000200261

The Story

The Seattle Mariners handed the Oakland Athletics a 7-2 defeat at Oakland Coliseum on September 19, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate made increasingly inevitable as the game progressed. Oakland entered with a 30% pre-game win probability, and that number fell to zero by the final out. Seattle scored in the second and fourth innings before the game's decisive sequence arrived in the top of the seventh, when the Mariners erupted for four runs to put the contest firmly out of reach. The Mariners finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, while Oakland managed just six hits and was charged with one error across nine innings.

The seventh inning was the pivot point by every measurable standard. J.P. Crawford's double off Easton Lucas shifted win probability by plus 11.7 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game, and Cal Raleigh followed with a single off the same pitcher for an additional plus 6.4 points. Crawford finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 8.8, paired with a RE24 of plus 1.5. Jarred Kelenic was nearly as impactful, finishing at plus 8.7 WPA, with his fourth-inning single off Paul Blackburn earlier representing a plus 6.6 point swing. Teoscar Hernandez led all batters in run-environment value, posting a RE24 of plus 1.9 alongside a WPA of plus 7.8. On the other side, Zack Gelof's strikeout double play in the bottom of the third off Luis Castillo cost Oakland 5.9 percentage points and illustrated how the Athletics repeatedly failed to generate any offensive traction.

Luis Castillo was the pitching story, contributing plus 21.1 WPA, the highest mark of any player in the game. Paul Blackburn posted a plus 10.3 WPA despite allowing Seattle's early runs, and Lucas Erceg added plus 6.2 in relief for Oakland. The DiamondIQ model's estimate effectively called the outcome by the seventh inning, and Seattle's combination of timely hitting and Castillo's dominance left Oakland without a credible path back into the contest.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalOAK win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 29.6% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

J.P. Crawford Double
Top 7th · off Easton Lucas
+11.7%
Jarred Kelenic Single
Top 4th · off Paul Blackburn
+6.6%
Cal Raleigh Single
Top 7th · off Easton Lucas
+6.4%
Cal Raleigh Strikeout
Top 1st · off Paul Blackburn
-6.3%
Zack Gelof Strikeout Double Play
Bot 3rd · off Luis Castillo
-5.9%

Top Batters by WPA

J.P. Crawford+8.8%+1.5 RE24
Jarred Kelenic+8.7%+0.5 RE24
Teoscar Hernández+7.8%+1.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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