Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies handed the Atlanta Braves a 7-1 defeat at Truist Park on September 18, 2023, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 63 percent home-win probability into a complete Philadelphia takeover. The Phillies scored in four of the first six innings and never allowed Atlanta to gain a foothold, finishing with seven runs on seven hits and no errors while holding the Braves to just four hits.

The critical damage came early and was inflicted almost entirely on Kyle Wright. Johan Rojas started the demolition with a second-inning home run that shifted win probability 9.4 points in Philadelphia's favor, and Bryce Harper extended it with a solo shot in the third worth 10.2 points, the single biggest positive swing of the game. J.T. Realmuto added another home run off Wright in the fourth, a swing worth 8.9 points of win probability, leaving Atlanta essentially buried before the middle innings arrived. The Braves' best chance to interrupt the momentum came in the second when Sean Murphy struck out against Zack Wheeler with runners on, a moment that cost Atlanta 6.7 points of win probability. Nick Castellanos capped the scoring with a sixth-inning home run off Michael Tonkin worth another 6.7 points.

Zack Wheeler was the game's dominant individual performer, posting a DiamondIQ model WPA of plus 26.8 percent in what amounted to a masterclass against Atlanta's lineup. Bryce Harper led Philadelphia's offensive contributors with a WPA of plus 12.8 and an RE24 of plus 1.6, while Kyle Schwarber added plus 8.2 WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, and Rojas contributed plus 7.7 WPA and plus 1.2 RE24. The DiamondIQ model leans heavily toward crediting Wheeler's pitching performance as the foundation on which Philadelphia's offensive outburst was built.