MLB Recap · September 18, 2023

Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap

CLE4
Final
KC6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE020101000490
KC00100104-660

The Story

The Kansas City Royals defeated the Cleveland Guardians 6-4 on September 18, 2023, at Kauffman Stadium, overcoming a pre-game win probability of just 38 percent according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Cleveland built its advantage through the early and middle innings, scoring twice in the second, once in the fourth on a Gabriel Arias home run off Brady Singer that swung win probability 10.9 percent in the Guardians' favor, and once more in the sixth. Kansas City answered with single runs in the third and sixth to stay within striking distance, but the game remained in Cleveland's hands heading into the late innings.

The Royals' decisive moment came in the bottom of the eighth, when Kansas City erupted for four runs to seize control entirely. The pivotal blow was a Drew Waters double off Enyel De Los Santos that shifted win probability 34.3 percent toward Kansas City, the single largest swing of the game. A Michael Massey walk off Trevor Stephan added another 17.8 percent, and even a Nick Pratto strikeout registered at plus 13.2 percent as the frame unfolded in Kansas City's favor. By the time the inning closed, the DiamondIQ model's estimate had moved to 100 percent in favor of the Royals.

Among individual performers, Drew Waters led all batters with a 31.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.7, anchoring the game-deciding rally. Nelson Velázquez contributed plus 16.9 percent WPA, and MJ Melendez provided an earlier spark with a third-inning triple off Cal Quantrill worth plus 12.2 percent in win probability. On the pitching side, Sam Hentges paced Kansas City's staff with plus 8.6 percent WPA, while James McArthur and Quantrill each added plus 6.3 percent in support of the Royals' comeback.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalKC win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 38.2% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Drew Waters Double
Bot 8th · off Enyel De Los Santos
+34.3%
Bot 8th · off Trevor Stephan
+17.8%
Nick Pratto Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Enyel De Los Santos
+13.2%
MJ Melendez Triple
Bot 3rd · off Cal Quantrill
+12.2%
Gabriel Arias Home Run
Top 4th · off Brady Singer
+10.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Drew Waters+31.3%+1.7 RE24
Nelson Velázquez+16.9%+0.7 RE24
MJ Melendez+14.6%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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