Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 1-0 on September 18, 2023, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 43 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The lone run of the game came in the bottom of the fourth inning, when Willson Contreras hit a home run off Freddy Peralta, a swing that shifted win probability by 12.1 percent in St. Louis's favor. That solo shot proved to be all the Cardinals would need, as the Brewers managed six hits on the night but could never translate them into a run against a Cardinals pitching staff that was consistently ahead in crucial moments.

Milwaukee's best opportunity to change the outcome came in the top of the eighth, where Andruw Monasterio opened the inning with a single off John King that added 7.9 percent to the Brewers' win probability. However, the threat collapsed almost immediately when Tyrone Taylor grounded into a double play off King, erasing 16.4 percent of Milwaukee's win probability in a single swing and effectively extinguishing the rally. Earlier in the game, Carlos Santana had also squandered a Cardinals opportunity with a ground-ball double play in the sixth off Adam Wainwright, and Santana struck out against Ryan Helsley in the ninth to close out any remaining Brewers hope, a strikeout that cost Milwaukee another 7.1 percent in win probability.

On the pitching side, Adam Wainwright was the game's most dominant performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing 41.8 percent in win probability added as he navigated Milwaukee's lineup deep into the contest. Helsley followed with 20.3 percent added to close it out, while Contreras and Monasterio led all position players with 8.1 and 7.9 percent WPA respectively. Peralta absorbed the loss despite his 10.1 percent WPA contribution, undone entirely by the Contreras home run in the fourth.