Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Cincinnati Reds 8-4 on September 17, 2023 at Citi Field, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a virtual coin flip at 49% home win probability into a certainty by the final out. The Reds drew first blood with a run in the top of the first, but the Mets answered emphatically in the bottom of the third when Francisco Alvarez doubled off Brandon Williamson, a swing that shifted win probability by 25.1 points and represented the single most decisive moment of the game. New York added another run in the fifth before closing it out with a four-run seventh inning, while Cincinnati committed three errors that contributed to the lopsided final margin.

The Reds made their most sustained threat in the seventh, when Joey Votto doubled off Jose Quintana to bring Cincinnati within striking distance, a hit worth 8.7 points of win probability. However, TJ Friedl's flyout against Drew Smith two batters later swung things back 7.2 points in New York's favor, effectively ending the rally and the Reds' realistic path to a comeback. Nick Senzel had briefly kept Cincinnati's hopes alive with a fifth-inning home run off Quintana worth 10.7 points, but the Mets' bullpen held firm when it mattered.

Mark Vientos led all batters with a WPA of plus 17.9 and an RE24 of plus 2.2, his single off Carson Spiers in the bottom of the fifth adding 9.3 points of win probability on its own. Alvarez finished second at plus 16.5 WPA with an RE24 of plus 0.9, while Tim Locastro contributed plus 8.8 WPA. On the mound, Jose Quintana paced New York's pitching staff with a WPA of plus 12.4, and Drew Smith added plus 7.2 despite surrendering the Votto double, recovering to strand the threat and preserve the comfortable margin.