Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 6 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-5 on September 17, 2023, at Busch Stadium in a game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win climb from 44% before first pitch all the way to 100% by the final out. The game's pivotal sequences were concentrated in the third and eighth innings, where the Cardinals built their advantage, briefly surrendered it, and then reclaimed it for good.
St. Louis struck first in the bottom of the third, when Paul Goldschmidt delivered a double off Taijuan Walker that shifted win probability by 17.7 percentage points in the Cardinals' favor, part of a three-run frame that gave the home team an early cushion. Philadelphia answered in the top of the fourth with three runs of their own to level the game, and the Cardinals added two more in the fifth to push back ahead. The eighth inning became the game's defining sequence. Nick Castellanos opened the frame with a single off John King that swung win probability 18.1 points toward Philadelphia, and Alec Bohm followed with a home run off Giovanny Gallegos worth another 14.7 points, pulling the Phillies within one. A Trea Turner groundout, costing Philadelphia 15.2 points of win probability, left the door open for St. Louis, and Jordan Walker answered immediately with a go-ahead home run off Seranthony Dominguez, the game's single biggest swing at plus 23.3 points.
By cumulative WPA, Nick Castellanos and Paul Goldschmidt finished as the game's most impactful offensive players, with Castellanos at plus 29.6 and a RE24 of plus 1.9 and Goldschmidt at plus 29.5 with a RE24 of plus 2.4, though their efforts landed on opposite sides of the final score. Jordan Walker added plus 19.8 WPA for St. Louis. On the mound, Ryan Helsley contributed plus 15.2 WPA in relief to secure the Cardinals win, with Matthew Liberatore adding plus 10.4, while starter Dakota Hudson finished at minus 5.2 WPA before the bullpen steadied things and preserved the one-run victory.