Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 2-1 in eleven innings on September 17, 2023, at American Family Field, overcoming a 66 percent pre-game home win probability assigned by the DiamondIQ model. Washington scratched across a run in the second inning, Milwaukee answered with a tying run in the sixth, and the game remained deadlocked through nine before spilling into extras. The decisive blow came in the top of the eleventh, when Michael Chavis struck out against Thyago Vieira with what registered as a plus-23.1 percent win-probability swing in Washington's favor, a pivotal moment that preserved the one-run lead the Nationals had just manufactured. The Nationals finished with four hits and no errors against the Brewers' six hits and no errors.

The extra innings were defined by a series of dramatic and costly swings in win probability. Victor Caratini's single off Robert Garcia in the bottom of the tenth moved Milwaukee's chances up by 24.5 percent, the largest single-play swing of the game, putting the Brewers in a position to walk it off. However, Mark Canha's forceout later in that same frame wiped out 17.5 percent of Milwaukee's equity, and the Brewers could not convert. Washington then pushed across the winning run in the eleventh, and with runners on for Milwaukee in the bottom half, the Chavis strikeout sealed the outcome. Brice Turang's sacrifice bunt in the bottom of the eleventh, while registering a plus-23.7 percent swing from Milwaukee's perspective, ultimately came to nothing as Washington's bullpen held on.

On the mound, Patrick Corbin led all pitchers with a plus-26.3 percent WPA contribution, followed by Andrew Chafin at plus-22.3 percent and Hunter Harvey at plus-19.2 percent, as Washington's pitching staff collectively neutralized a Milwaukee lineup that had entered with a significant home-field advantage on the DiamondIQ model's estimate. CJ Abrams' grounded-into-double-play in the top of the eighth, a minus-22.3 percent swing against Washington, had threatened to doom the Nationals' chances, but the bullpen's resilience in extra innings made it a footnote in an otherwise impressive road victory.