Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers handed the Seattle Mariners a 6-1 defeat at T-Mobile Park on September 17, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Seattle winning falling from 47% before first pitch all the way to 0% by the final out. Los Angeles seized control early, plating a run in the first inning before breaking the game open in the second. Austin Barnes delivered a home run off Logan Gilbert that swung win probability 6.9 points in the Dodgers' favor, and Seattle's chances took their most damaging blow on the very next half-inning when Julio Rodríguez grounded out against Ryan Yarbrough in a situation that collapsed the Mariners' win probability by 10.6 points — the single largest swing of the night. J.P. Crawford's single off Yarbrough in that same frame added 5.8 points back for Seattle, but it was too little to offset the damage.

Jason Heyward was the game's top offensive performer by a clear margin, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-14.9 and a RE24 of plus-2.0. His pop out in the second inning, which came with the bases occupied and added 6.8 WPA points by stranding Dodgers runners in a high-leverage spot before he then contributed a single off Gilbert in the fourth worth 6.5 WPA points, made him the most consequential bat on either side. J.P. Crawford led Seattle's effort with a WPA of plus-9.5 and RE24 of plus-1.6, while Amed Rosario contributed plus-8.2 WPA and plus-1.5 RE24 for Los Angeles. On the mound, Ryan Yarbrough was the pitching standout of the contest, generating plus-19.6 WPA by repeatedly neutralizing Seattle threats, with Gavin Stone adding plus-4.8 and Shelby Miller plus-2.8 in support. The Dodgers collected 10 hits against one error allowed, while the Mariners managed seven hits but were unable to convert them into any sustained offense against a Dodger pitching staff that the DiamondIQ model credited as the decisive factor in the outcome.