Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Detroit Tigers escaped Angel Stadium with a 5-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels in ten innings on September 16, 2023, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had nearly ruled out entirely. Detroit built a 4-0 lead through five innings, scoring three runs in the second and one in the fifth, before Los Angeles began chipping away. The Angels pulled to within one in the third and then dramatically tied the game in the bottom of the ninth on a Brett Phillips home run off Alex Lange, a swing that shifted win probability by 48.9 percentage points in Los Angeles's favor and briefly gave the home side a genuine foothold with the DiamondIQ model's estimate swinging sharply toward an Angels outcome.
The tenth inning settled the matter decisively in Detroit's favor. Miguel Cabrera delivered a go-ahead single off José Soriano that added 36.5 percentage points of win probability to the Tigers' ledger, and a Carson Kelly strikeout later in the frame added another 21.1 points by preventing an Angels rally from gaining traction. When Brandon Drury lined out to end the bottom of the tenth, that play resolved 27.0 percentage points of remaining Angels probability, closing out the game and completing a difficult defensive hold for Detroit's bullpen. Cabrera finished as the game's highest-leverage offensive performer at plus 44.3 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, with Phillips ironically posting the second-highest batting WPA figure at plus 42.6 percent despite playing for the losing side.
On the pitching side, Sawyer Gipson-Long led Detroit's staff with plus 20.8 percent WPA, followed by Beau Brieske at plus 12.3 percent, as the pair contributed meaningfully to preserving the lead before the ninth-inning drama unraveled it. The win completed a 5-4 final that saw the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate open at 53 percent in favor of Los Angeles and close at zero, a full reversal driven almost entirely by two half-innings of high-leverage play in extras.