Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the New York Mets 3-2 at Citi Field on September 16, 2023, handing New York a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 48 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero. The Reds scored in four of their first five half-innings, taking a 1-0 lead in the second before Christian Encarnacion-Strand delivered the decisive blow in the fourth, a two-run home run off Tylor Megill that swung win probability 19.5 points in Cincinnati's favor and gave the Reds a 3-1 advantage they would not relinquish. The Mets trimmed the deficit to one on a Francisco Alvarez double off Andrew Abbott in the bottom of the fourth, a hit worth 10.9 points of win probability for New York, but a Tyler Stephenson groundout to end a fifth-inning threat cost the Reds 14.4 points of win probability and kept the game within reach for the home side.

New York's best chance to equalize came late, but Cincinnati's bullpen closed the door emphatically. Fernando Cruz posted the highest pitcher WPA of the game at plus 33.0 points, and a Mark Vientos groundout against Cruz in the eighth, costing the Mets 12.9 points of win probability, effectively ended their most dangerous threat of the final innings. Pete Alonso's forceout in the ninth added 21.4 points to New York's win probability column and gave the Mets a brief flicker, but it was not enough. Encarnacion-Strand finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 18.3 points with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Daniel Duarte and Brooks Raley combined with Cruz to protect the lead, contributing plus 10.9 and plus 9.5 points of pitcher WPA respectively. Cincinnati left Flushing with a clean defensive performance, committing no errors against a Mets club that was charged with two.