Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Washington Nationals 9-5 on September 16, 2023, at American Family Field, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate anticipated from the outset with a 67 percent pre-game home win probability that climbed to 100 percent by game's end. Milwaukee jumped out to a three-run first inning and added single runs in the fourth and fifth to build a 5-1 lead, though Washington mounted a three-run sixth that briefly tightened the contest. That rally centered on a Luis García Jr. walk off Corbin Burnes that shifted win probability by plus-14.6 percent, but a Jake Alu groundout off Elvis Peguero swung it back by minus-11.5 percent, effectively halting Washington's momentum in the frame. García Jr. had given the Nationals their lone early answer with a solo home run off Burnes in the third, a swing worth plus-8.5 percent in win probability.

The Brewers put the game away in the bottom of the eighth inning, turning a narrow deficit into a commanding lead with a four-run frame capped by Mark Canha's home run off Kyle Finnegan. That blast registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-35.1 percent and served as the decisive blow. Canha finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-35.5 percent with a RE24 of plus-4.0, while García Jr. led Washington's contributors at plus-24.3 percent WPA despite being on the losing side. Tyrone Taylor added plus-15.5 percent WPA for Milwaukee, and on the pitching side Elvis Peguero led all arms at plus-20.0 percent WPA, with José A. Ferrer contributing plus-9.8 percent and Jordan Weems adding plus-5.3 percent as the Brewers bullpen secured the final margin.