San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the San Francisco Giants 5-2 at Coors Field on September 16, 2023, in a game that swung decisively toward the home side early and never returned. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Colorado a 41% chance of winning, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Rockies controlled the contest once they seized the lead.

The game's most damaging moments belonged to the Giants, who repeatedly squandered opportunities. In the third inning, Mitch Haniger grounded into a double play off Kyle Freeland, costing San Francisco 9.9 percentage points of win probability at a critical juncture. Patrick Bailey then compounded the damage in the sixth, grounding into another double play off Matt Carasiti for a 14.5-point swing — the single largest win-probability shift of the game — effectively ending any realistic chance of a Giants comeback. Sandwiched between those deflating moments, Colorado's Charlie Blackmon laced a third-inning triple off Jakob Junis to generate an 8.2-point swing for the Rockies, part of a two-run home half that extended the lead.

The individual performances that drove the Colorado victory were concentrated at the plate and on the mound. Elias Díaz finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-14.0%, pairing that with a RE24 of plus-0.5, while Blackmon added plus-10.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0. Ezequiel Tovar contributed plus-6.6% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.0 as well. On the pitching side, Freeland led all pitchers with plus-12.5% WPA, with Carasiti nearly matching him at plus-12.4%, and Jake Bird added plus-4.5%. The Giants finished with 10 hits but two costly errors and an inability to capitalize with runners on base proved the difference.