Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks walked off the Chicago Cubs 7-6 in 13 innings on September 16, 2023, at Chase Field, completing a dramatic comeback that pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate of an Arizona win from a pre-game 54 percent all the way to a final 100 percent. The game remained scoreless through three innings before Arizona plated two in the fourth, only for Chicago to respond with three in the fifth and add a run in the sixth to take a 4-3 lead that held through regulation. Both teams traded single runs in the 10th and 11th to force a 13th inning, where the game's decisive sequence ultimately unfolded.

The single most impactful moment of the night came in the bottom of the 10th, when Corbin Carroll lined a single off Marcus Stroman that swung win probability by 51.6 percentage points in Arizona's favor, knotting the game and immediately altering its trajectory. Carroll finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus-73.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2 across the night. In the 13th, after Patrick Wisdom singled off Joe Mantiply to give Chicago a brief 6-5 lead with a 32.0-point WPA swing, Arizona answered immediately. Emmanuel Rivera's walk-off single off Hayden Wesneski added 42.1 percentage points to Arizona's win probability, while Gabriel Moreno followed with a single worth 37.9 points to complete the comeback and seal the victory.

Cody Bellinger contributed the top WPA mark among Cubs batters at plus-60.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1, though his 10th-inning lineout off Andrew Saalfrank proved a critical missed opportunity, costing Chicago 33.3 percentage points of win probability at a pivotal moment. On the mound, Paul Sewald led Arizona's relief corps with a WPA of plus-13.5 percent, followed by Kevin Ginkel at plus-10.6 and Jose Cuas at plus-9.6, as the Diamondbacks bullpen ultimately held firm long enough to let the offense deliver the decisive blows.