Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins handed the Atlanta Braves a 11-5 defeat at loanDepot park on September 16, 2023, turning what had been a competitive game into a comfortable victory on the strength of a decisive eighth-inning outburst. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Miami holding a 40% pre-game win probability and closed at 100%, a climb driven primarily by the events of the final frames.

The game's single most consequential moment came in the bottom of the eighth when Jake Burger launched a home run off Kirby Yates, a swing the DiamondIQ model measured as a +35.6% win-probability addition that effectively put the game beyond Atlanta's reach. That blow was part of a six-run eighth inning for Miami that turned a manageable deficit into a rout. The Marlins had also built their early lead in the opening inning, scoring four runs to Atlanta's three, and added a run in the third. Atlanta had moments to claw back, most notably when Matt Olson hit a home run off Steven Okert in the top of the sixth (+13.6% WP) and Michael Harris II connected off the same pitcher in the fifth (+10.9% WP), but Orlando Arcia's groundout against Tanner Scott in the top of the eighth represented a -15.2% swing that snuffed out any realistic Atlanta hope just before Burger delivered the knockout.

Burger finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a +47.3% WPA and +3.2 RE24, while Jazz Chisholm Jr. contributed meaningfully with +14.3% WPA and led all hitters with a +3.7 RE24. On the mound, Bryan Hoeing led Miami's pitching staff with +19.0% WPA, followed closely by Jackson Stephens at +15.7% and George Soriano at +15.4%, a trio that collectively maintained Miami's advantage through the middle innings and set the stage for the eighth-inning surge.