Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the New York Mets 5-3 at Citi Field on September 15, 2023, in a game that swung dramatically through the middle innings before the Reds ultimately pulled away. The DiamondIQ model opened with a near-even 49% home win probability for New York, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly Cincinnati seized control over the final three frames.
The pivotal sequence unfolded across the sixth and seventh innings. Spencer Steer started it in the top of the sixth, connecting for a home run off David Peterson to give the Reds a 1-0 lead, a swing that shifted win probability 17.7 points in Cincinnati's favor. The Mets answered immediately in the bottom half when Pete Alonso launched a home run off Hunter Greene, a three-run blow that flipped the game and represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 36.2 points for New York. The Reds regained momentum just one half-inning later, as Jonathan India took Grant Hartwig deep for a home run in the top of the seventh, a 23.3-point swing that knotted the game at 3 and set the stage for Cincinnati's decisive frame. The Mets' best chance to respond evaporated in the bottom of the seventh when Mark Vientos grounded into a double play against Ian Gibaut, a 19.0-point negative swing that effectively transferred control back to the Reds.
From a performer standpoint, Alonso led all batters in raw impact despite being on the losing side, finishing at plus 25.4 WPA with a RE24 of plus 2.1, while Steer and India posted plus 17.8 and plus 17.2 WPA respectively to pace Cincinnati's offense. On the mound, Ian Gibaut was the game's most valuable pitcher at plus 21.9 WPA, his seventh-inning double-play induction proving decisive, and Alexis Díaz closed it out with a ninth-inning strikeout of Vientos worth another 14.4 win-probability points. Cincinnati committed no errors against the Mets' two, a margin of execution that aligned with the final result.