Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies held on to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals 5-4 at Busch Stadium on September 15, 2023, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered giving the home side a 44 percent chance of winning. Philadelphia scored four times in the first inning and added a run in the sixth, while St. Louis chipped away with two in the third, one in the fourth, and one final run in the ninth, never quite closing the gap. The Phillies committed three errors against a clean Cardinal defense, yet still managed to protect a one-run lead through the final out.
The single most consequential moment of the game, by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, was Alec Burleson's strikeout against Craig Kimbrel in the bottom of the eighth, a swing of negative 20.9 percent in win probability for St. Louis that effectively sealed Philadelphia's advantage. Earlier, Nolan Arenado had given the Cardinals momentum in the third with a single off Aaron Nola worth plus 14.7 percent in win probability, but Willson Contreras immediately surrendered much of that gain by grounding into a double play, costing the Cardinals 12.4 percent. The ninth inning featured its own tension, as Masyn Winn drew a walk off José Alvarado worth plus 10.4 percent for St. Louis, and Lars Nootbaar's subsequent strikeout shifted 11.0 percent back toward Philadelphia.
Among individual performers, Nootbaar and Winn led all Cardinals batters with win-probability figures of plus 18.3 and plus 17.5 percent respectively, while Arenado contributed plus 10.6 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 1.4, the best run-expectancy impact among position players. On the pitching side, Kimbrel's eighth-inning work generated plus 13.3 percent in win probability for Philadelphia, supported by Seranthony Domínguez at plus 8.8 percent and Matthew Liberatore, pitching for St. Louis, at plus 7.5 percent. The DiamondIQ model closed with a zero percent home win probability, reflecting how thoroughly Philadelphia's early burst withstood the Cardinals' incremental attempts to recover.