Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| AZ | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-4 at Chase Field on September 15, 2023, in a game that was never truly in doubt after the home side struck early and often. Arizona plated three runs in the first inning and added three more in the sixth, building a 6-0 cushion that proved more than sufficient. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Arizona as a modest 53 percent favorite, but that estimate climbed steadily toward its final reading of 100 percent as the Cubs' offense went quiet through eight innings before a four-run ninth made the final score appear closer than the game itself ever was.
The decisive moments came in bunches for Arizona. In the bottom of the first, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. connected on a home run off Justin Steele that added 5.8 percentage points to Arizona's win probability, while Evan Longoria's groundout in the same frame contributed an additional 5.9 points, reflecting how efficiently the Diamondbacks worked the inning. Steele continued to be tested in the second, when Ketel Marte's groundout added another 5.0 points to Arizona's ledger. The knockout blow came in the sixth when Alek Thomas launched a home run off Steele, the single biggest swing of the night at plus 9.0 percentage points. On the other side, Seiya Suzuki's strikeout against Brandon Pfaadt in the second cost Chicago 7.6 points of win probability, encapsulating the Cubs' inability to generate anything against the Arizona starter.
Brandon Pfaadt was the central figure of the game by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a WPA of plus 23.0 percentage points that dwarfed every other individual contribution on either side. Among position players, Thomas led Arizona's offense with a WPA of plus 6.1 and an RE24 of plus 1.9, while Marte finished at plus 5.1 WPA and Longoria contributed plus 4.3. Andrew Saalfrank added plus 5.4 WPA in relief, and Paul Sewald closed things out at plus 0.5. The Cubs' four-run ninth amounted to window dressing against a Diamondbacks club that controlled this game from the opening frame.