Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays held off the Baltimore Orioles 4-3 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 14, 2023, overcoming a game that the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 55 percent home win probability and closed at zero. The decisive sequence arrived in the third inning, when Randy Arozarena's triple off Kyle Bradish swung win probability 22.6 points in Tampa Bay's favor and served as the engine of a three-run frame that gave the Rays a lead they would not relinquish. Baltimore chipped away with single runs in the second, fourth, and fifth innings, keeping the game tight, but Adley Rutschman's grounded-into-double-play against Aaron Civale in the fifth shifted 14.1 points of win probability toward Tampa Bay at a moment when the Orioles needed baserunners most.

Luke Raley's solo home run off Bradish in the seventh extended the Rays' advantage and represented a 17.0-point swing in win probability, giving Tampa Bay the cushion that would ultimately prove necessary. The bullpen took it from there, with Robert Stephenson, Shawn Armstrong, and Jorge López combining to protect the lead through the final frames. Stephenson finished as the top pitching performer by WPA at plus-23.3, in large part because of what unfolded in the bottom of the ninth: with the game on the line, Pete Fairbanks struck out Ryan O'Hearn to end the threat, a moment that registered as the single biggest win-probability play of the evening at plus-31.6 points for Tampa Bay. Rutschman, who had also popped out against Stephenson in the eighth for a 12.9-point swing against Baltimore, went 0-for-2 in the two highest-leverage spots of the second half of the game. Arozarena led all batters with a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Raley posted the game's top RE24 among position players at plus-1.3 alongside his plus-20.2 WPA.