Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets rolled past the Arizona Diamondbacks 11-1 at Citi Field on September 14, 2023, a game that was never particularly close after the middle innings took shape. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 49 percent home win probability, a virtual coin flip, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent as New York steadily dismantled Arizona starter Merrill Kelly across the third and fifth innings.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third, where Brandon Nimmo delivered a double off Kelly that shifted win probability by 11.0 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Rafael Ortega followed with a walk worth 6.7 points and Mark Vientos added another walk at plus 5.3 points, as New York pushed two runs across to break the scoreless tie. The fifth inning was similarly damaging: Pete Alonso drove a double off Kelly for an 8.8-point swing, and DJ Stewart added a single worth 5.7 points as the Mets put up five runs in the frame to turn a close contest into a rout. Kelly bore the brunt of the damage across both innings, surrendering the bulk of New York's 11-run output before departing.

On the individual ledger, Nimmo finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus 12.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.8, while Ortega and Daniel Vogelbach added plus 5.1 and plus 4.6 WPA respectively. The most impactful figure overall was Kodai Senga on the mound, whose WPA of plus 22.0 percent led all players in the game, underscoring how thoroughly he suppressed Arizona's offense in limiting the Diamondbacks to a single run on four hits across the contest.