Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Minnesota Twins 5-4 at Target Field on September 13, 2023, in a game that remained closely contested until a decisive late swing shifted everything. The DiamondIQ model opened with Minnesota holding a 45% win probability, a number that fluctuated through several key moments before ultimately reaching 0% as Tampa Bay secured the road victory.
The game's defining moment came in the top of the ninth inning, when Randy Arozarena connected on a home run off Griffin Jax, a swing that added 41.6 percentage points of win probability and served as the game's single most impactful play. Arozarena finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating a total of plus 48.7% WPA and plus 0.9 RE24. Minnesota had kept pace largely through a Max Kepler triple in the bottom of the fifth off Jake Diekman, which added 19.1 percentage points to the Twins' win probability and helped fuel a two-run inning that briefly tilted the game toward the home side. Kepler finished with plus 13.0% WPA and plus 0.8 RE24 for the night.
Tampa Bay's pitching staff ultimately closed the door. Kevin Kelly was the Rays' most valuable arm by WPA, posting plus 19.2%, highlighted by inducing a strikeout double play from Edouard Julien in the bottom of the seventh that swung win probability by 11.6 points against Minnesota. Emilio Pagán contributed plus 15.4% WPA, and Dylan Floro added plus 11.0%. Robert Stephenson completed the game by striking out Christian Vázquez to end any Minnesota threat in the ninth, a out worth plus 21.4 percentage points from Tampa Bay's perspective, preserving the one-run victory.