San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 6-1 defeat at Dodger Stadium on September 13, 2023, completing a dominant performance that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 67 percent pre-game home win probability for Los Angeles. The Padres struck first with a run in the opening inning, then broke the game open with a three-run fourth that effectively ended any realistic Dodgers comeback. The decisive blow came from catcher Luis Campusano, whose home run off Ryan Pepiot in the fourth inning swung win probability by 14.3 percentage points and served as the single most impactful offensive play of the night. Pepiot continued to struggle in that inning, allowing a Fernando Tatis Jr. double worth 6.2 percentage points and a Juan Soto single adding another 5.7, turning the fourth into a sequence that methodically dismantled Los Angeles. San Diego added two more runs in the seventh before the Dodgers salvaged a run in the ninth against a game long since decided.

Blake Snell was the engine of the victory, accumulating a staggering plus-36.7 percent win probability across his outing and repeatedly suppressing Dodgers threats before they could develop. His strikeout of James Outman in the second inning swung win probability by 7.7 percentage points, and a first-inning groundout induced from J.D. Martinez was worth another 7.5, signaling early that Los Angeles would struggle to generate any meaningful offense. Campusano finished as the top position player by WPA at plus-20.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7, while Tatis contributed plus-9.8 percent and also posted a RE24 of plus-1.7. Trent Grisham added a modest plus-5.5 percent WPA in a supporting role. The Dodgers managed just three hits across the entire game, and the DiamondIQ model's final win probability of zero percent for the home side reflected how thoroughly San Diego controlled proceedings from the first pitch to the last.