MLB Recap · September 13, 2023

Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

MIA2
Final
MIL0

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIA000010100282
MIL000000000070

The Story

The Miami Marlins shut out the Milwaukee Brewers 2-0 on September 13, 2023, at American Family Field, overcoming a pregame DiamondIQ model estimate that put Milwaukee's win probability at 58%. Miami scored once in the fifth inning and again in the seventh, with both tallies coming against a Brewers staff that finished with seven hits allowed across the nine innings. The Marlins committed two errors but kept the Brewers off the board entirely, finishing with eight hits of their own.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when the Brewers mounted their most credible threat of the night. William Contreras opened the frame with a single off Andrew Nardi, a play that shifted win probability 8.9 points in Milwaukee's favor. But Nardi responded by striking out Josh Donaldson, swinging the model's estimate 9.7 points back toward Miami, and then induced Willy Adames into a double play that erased the threat and moved the needle a decisive 16.1 points in the Marlins' direction. In the ninth, Joey Wiemer grounded out against Tanner Scott, a play that registered a 12.0-point win-probability addition for the home side, though the Brewers never advanced a runner into scoring position. The seventh-inning run that proved to be the game's insurance came courtesy of a Garrett Hampson double off Bryse Wilson, a hit worth 9.0 points of win probability at the time.

Braxton Garrett was the standout individual performer of the evening, contributing 34.6 points of win probability over the course of his outing to lead all pitchers. Andrew Nardi added 13.3 points in relief, and David Robertson contributed 8.8 points to close things out. Among position players, Tyrone Taylor led all batters with 11.0 points of win probability added and a RE24 of plus-0.3, while Xavier Edwards and Garrett Hampson each contributed 6.5 and 5.6 points respectively. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from 58 percent in Milwaukee's favor before first pitch to zero percent by the final out.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIA bats firstFinalMIL win %MIA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Willy Adames Grounded Into DP
Bot 8th · off Andrew Nardi
-16.1%
Joey Wiemer Groundout
Bot 9th · off Tanner Scott
+12.0%
Josh Donaldson Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Andrew Nardi
-9.7%
Garrett Hampson Double
Top 7th · off Bryse Wilson
+9.0%
Bot 8th · off Andrew Nardi
+8.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Tyrone Taylor+11.0%+0.3 RE24
Xavier Edwards+6.5%+0.2 RE24
Garrett Hampson+5.6%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →