Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Chicago Cubs 7-3 on September 13, 2023, at Coors Field, completing a convincing home victory that the DiamondIQ model's estimate pegged at just 37% before first pitch but finished at 100% in Colorado's favor. The Cubs drew first blood with a run in the first and added two more in the third, the latter fueled by a Dansby Swanson double off Ty Blach that carried an 11.3% win-probability swing in Chicago's direction. Through four innings it appeared the early advantage might hold, but a single from Ezequiel Tovar against Jameson Taillon in the bottom of the fourth, worth 9.3% in win probability, signaled the Rockies were beginning to find their footing.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Taillon surrendered back-to-back home runs that effectively ended the contest as a competitive affair. Elehuris Montero went deep first, a swing worth 22.2% in win probability, and Nolan Jones followed immediately with another, adding 22.1% more. Those two at-bats alone represented a combined 44.3-percentage-point transfer of win probability and were the clearest inflection point of the game. Colorado then extended the lead with two more runs in the seventh, pushing the final margin to four. Hunter Goodman's fifth-inning groundout into a double play, which cost the Rockies 8.7% in win probability during their big frame, was the lone significant check on the offensive surge.

Nolan Jones led all players by WPA at plus-24.5% to go with a RE24 of plus-2.1, making him the single most impactful offensive contributor on the night. Elehuris Montero posted plus-16.8% WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Kris Bryant added plus-13.9% WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 to round out Colorado's most productive bats. On the mound, the Rockies bullpen closed things out cleanly, with Gavin Hollowell contributing plus-13.6% WPA and Tyler Kinley adding plus-12.0%, preserving a lead that the fifth-inning power display had firmly established.