San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers routed the San Diego Padres 11-2 at Dodger Stadium on September 12, 2023, in a game that was never particularly close after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 68% pre-game win probability in favor of the home side and climbed to 100% by the final out, reflecting how thoroughly Los Angeles controlled the contest. The Dodgers scored in five of their nine half-innings, spreading 11 runs across a lineup that did consistent damage against Padres starter Michael Wacha.

The decisive stretch came in the third and fourth innings, with Freddie Freeman and Will Smith delivering the two biggest blows of the night. Freeman's home run off Wacha in the bottom of the third was the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 15.9%, and his overall line of plus 17.2% WPA and plus 3.0 RE24 made him the top offensive contributor by model metrics. Smith followed in the bottom of the fourth with a home run of his own off Wacha, adding plus 12.4% WPA on that swing alone and finishing the night at plus 15.5% WPA and a game-high plus 3.7 RE24. The Padres had a brief window in the fourth when Manny Machado singled and Xander Bogaerts drew a walk against Lance Lynn, generating swings of plus 5.6% and plus 5.4% respectively, but Fernando Tatis Jr. grounded into a double play in the third that cost San Diego minus 5.7% win probability and typified the club's inability to capitalize.

On the mound, Lance Lynn led all pitchers with a plus 4.4% WPA, suppressing the Padres' intermittent threats and keeping the game well within the model's projected outcome. Nick Hernandez and Kyle Hurt contributed plus 0.5% and plus 0.0% WPA respectively in relief. San Diego finished with just five hits and no errors, while Los Angeles collected 11 hits and committed one error in a dominant home performance.