Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Washington Nationals 5-1 at PNC Park on September 12, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 55 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to certainty by the final out. Pittsburgh built its lead in stages, scoring twice in the second, twice more in the fifth, and adding a single run in the seventh, while Washington's lone run in the fourth proved insufficient to generate any real threat.

The decisive moment of the game came in the bottom of the second, when Joshua Palacios connected on a home run off Joan Adon, a swing that shifted win probability by 11.5 percentage points in Pittsburgh's favor. Washington attempted to respond in the fourth inning, when Ildemaro Vargas singled off Bailey Falter for a 9.1-point swing, but a Carter Kieboom forceout two batters later cost the Nationals 5.8 points of win probability and extinguished the rally. Endy Rodriguez's double off Adon in the fifth, worth 6.1 points, extended the Pittsburgh cushion and effectively closed the door on any Nationals comeback.

Palacios finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus-18.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.7. Vargas contributed plus-9.6 percent WPA, while Rodriguez added plus-5.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8. On the pitching side, Bailey Falter led all hurlers at plus-14.1 percent WPA, with Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman each contributing positive performances in support.