Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 3 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Miami Marlins 3-1 on September 12, 2023, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 59 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Milwaukee scored in the second, fourth, and seventh innings, while Miami managed just two hits and crossed the plate only once, in the first inning.
The decisive blow came in the bottom of the fourth, when Josh Donaldson connected on a home run off Edward Cabrera, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 11.8 percent and proved to be the clearest turning point of the game. Donaldson finished as the top offensive contributor by a wide margin, posting a combined WPA of plus 20.5 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.9, with his second-inning walk also factoring into the damage against Cabrera. Andruw Monasterio added significantly to the Milwaukee effort with a plus 12.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.5, drawing a key walk in the second inning worth plus 7.0 percent and delivering a double off A.J. Puk in the seventh that added another plus 6.6 percent. Mark Canha contributed modestly at plus 2.9 percent WPA.
On the mound, Freddy Peralta was the standout performer, posting a plus 24.0 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, with Hoby Milner adding plus 11.0 percent and Devin Williams contributing plus 6.3 percent in support. Edward Cabrera absorbed the brunt of Milwaukee's offensive production in his outing, with the second inning proving particularly costly even as a Sal Frelick groundout there limited further damage by minus 7.7 percent from Milwaukee's perspective.