Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks rallied past the New York Mets 4-3 at Citi Field on September 11, 2023, overcoming a 3-2 deficit entering the final two innings to hand the Mets a loss that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win at exactly zero percent after sitting at 47 percent before first pitch. The game was scoreless through three innings before both teams exchanged all of their runs in a chaotic fourth, with Ronny Mauricio's double off Zach Davies proving the biggest swing of that frame, adding 16.1 percent in win probability for New York and helping stake the Mets to a 3-2 lead. Arizona answered with single runs in the eighth and ninth, and it was those two late blows that ultimately decided the outcome.
The decisive moments came courtesy of Tommy Pham and Ketel Marte, Arizona's two most impactful bats by WPA. Pham's solo home run off Trevor Gott in the eighth inning shifted the win-probability needle 18.6 percent in the Diamondbacks' favor, tying the game and fundamentally changing the contest's complexion. Marte then delivered the winning blow in the ninth, a double off Drew Smith that added 35.7 percent in win probability, the single largest play of the game. Marte finished as a net positive despite a costly fifth-inning grounded-into-double-play against Brooks Raley that had cost Arizona 13.2 percent, and he ended the night at plus-23.0 percent WPA alongside Pham at plus-21.4 percent and Mauricio, who led all players at plus-23.7 percent despite being on the losing side.
Arizona's bullpen did critical work to preserve the lead once it was established. Kevin Ginkel, Kyle Nelson, and Brooks Raley each posted positive WPA figures at plus-10.9, plus-10.3, and plus-8.5 percent respectively, while Paul Sewald closed it out, aided by Brandon Nimmo's flyout to end the ninth that added 16.7 percent to Arizona's win probability by extinguishing New York's last threat. The Mets finished with six hits and no errors but could not reclaim the lead after Pham's eighth-inning shot changed the equation.