St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | 11 | 13 | 1 |
The Story
The Baltimore Orioles defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 11-5 on September 11, 2023, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate largely anticipated with a 73% pre-game home win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. Baltimore built its advantage methodically across the early innings before breaking the game open with a five-run fifth inning that effectively ended any realistic Cardinals comeback attempt.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, where Cedric Mullins delivered the single most impactful play of the game, a home run off Andre Pallante that shifted win probability by 34.7 percentage points. Ryan O'Hearn followed with a double off Dakota Hudson that added another 16.4 points of win probability, pushing Baltimore's advantage to a level from which St. Louis had no realistic path back. The Cardinals had generated their own meaningful moments earlier, most notably in the top of the third when Willson Contreras singled off Dean Kremer to produce a 14.8-point swing, and Jordan Walker added a single in the same frame worth 9.6 points, but Baltimore's Adam Frazier answered with a run-scoring single off Hudson in the bottom of the fourth worth 10.2 points to keep the Orioles firmly in control.
Among individual performers, Mullins finished as the game's top contributor by WPA at plus 34.2% with a RE24 of plus 3.7, while Contreras led Cardinals batters with plus 13.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.0 despite the loss. O'Hearn posted plus 13.2% WPA for Baltimore. In the bullpen, Danny Coulombe led Baltimore's relievers at plus 2.2% WPA, with Jacob Webb and Jorge López each adding positive contributions as the Orioles closed out a comfortable victory.