Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| PHI | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 8 | 2 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Atlanta Braves 7-5 on September 11, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, completing a comeback after the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate gave the home side only a 43% chance of winning — a figure that reached 100% by game's end. Philadelphia trailed early and faced significant pressure in the third inning when Matt Olson launched a home run off Michael Lorenzen, the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at +21.2%, pushing Atlanta ahead and putting the Braves in firm control through three frames with a 3-0 advantage. The Phillies had squandered opportunities earlier, most notably Kevin Pillar's second-inning pop out off Lorenzen that cost Philadelphia 11.5 percentage points of win probability at a moment when the offense needed to respond.
Philadelphia clawed back through the middle innings, and the turning point came in the bottom of the fourth when Jake Cave delivered a triple off Kyle Wright worth +13.6% in win probability, part of a two-run frame that began swinging the game back toward the home side. Cave finished as the second-most impactful batter by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a cumulative +22.5% WPA across his appearances, while J.T. Realmuto contributed +7.9% WPA despite a negative RE24 of -0.9. Olson remained Atlanta's standout offensive performer with +23.5% WPA and a +3.5 RE24, though his contributions ultimately went unrewarded in the final result.
The Phillies bullpen proved decisive in preserving the lead through the game's final stages. Matt Strahm led Philadelphia's relievers with +8.1% WPA, followed by Craig Kimbrel at +6.3% and Jeff Hoffman at +5.0%, a trio that combined to shut down any late Atlanta threat and account for Philadelphia's closing advantage in win probability. Kyle Wright absorbed the loss, surrendering runs across multiple innings including the pivotal Cave triple, and the Braves' lone error contributed to a Philadelphia offense that totaled eight hits in the victory.