Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins erased a two-run deficit with a five-run surge over the final three innings to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies 5-4 at Citizens Bank Park on September 10, 2023. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 57 percent chance of a Phillies win, a figure that tracked in Philadelphia's favor through six innings before collapsing entirely by the final out.

The decisive swing came in the top of the eighth, when Bryan De La Cruz launched a home run off Seranthony Domínguez that shifted win probability 28.8 percent in Miami's favor, part of a two-run frame that gave the Marlins the lead. The Phillies threatened to reclaim it in the bottom half when Nick Castellanos doubled off Andrew Nardi to move the needle 19.1 percent toward Philadelphia, but Tanner Scott entered and stranded the rally, retiring Kyle Schwarber on a strikeout that swung win probability back 19.9 percent in Miami's direction. The Phillies mounted one final push in the ninth, but Scott induced a game-ending double play off the bat of Alec Bohm, the single biggest play of the night at minus 32.1 percent for Philadelphia. Bryson Stott's strikeout one batter earlier had already added 19.0 percent to the Marlins' closing probability.

De La Cruz finished as Miami's most impactful offensive performer, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 31.6 and an RE24 of plus 1.5. Bryce Harper led Philadelphia's contributors with a WPA of plus 22.4 and an RE24 of plus 1.1, while Stott finished at plus 24.4 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus 0.9. On the mound, Scott was the most valuable arm in the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus 16.8 WPA with two strikeouts and the clinching double-play ball across a two-inning save.