MLB Recap · September 10, 2023

Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

SEA3
Final
TB6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA000210000390
TB30200100-6110

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-3 on September 10, 2023, at Tropicana Field, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which opened with a 60 percent home win probability and finished at 100 percent as Tampa Bay pulled away. The Rays did their most decisive damage early, scoring three runs in the first inning and two more in the third to build a 5-0 lead before Seattle could respond. Luke Raley's double off Bryce Miller in the bottom of the third was among the game's most impactful individual plays, adding 5.5 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability and helping to extend that cushion before the Mariners found their footing.

Seattle made a brief push in the middle innings, cutting into the deficit with two runs in the fourth and one in the fifth, but the rally never threatened to flip the outcome. Sam Haggerty's single off Zach Eflin in the top of the fourth was the highest single-play swing of the game at plus 6.5 percent win probability from Seattle's perspective, and Haggerty finished as the Mariners' top performer with a cumulative WPA of plus 9.9 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.3. Despite those individual contributions, the Mariners left nine hits on the field without converting them into enough runs, and Ty France's strikeout against Eflin in the second inning, a minus 5.8 percent swing, illustrated how Seattle repeatedly stalled in key spots.

Tampa Bay's bullpen locked down the game from the sixth inning onward. Shawn Armstrong led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 6.4 percent, followed by Robert Stephenson at plus 5.0 percent and Colin Poche at plus 4.5 percent. On the offensive side, Josh Lowe posted a WPA of plus 7.2 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.9, the best run-contribution figure among all batters, while Osleivis Basabe added plus 7.1 percent in WPA. Tampa Bay finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, executing cleanly on both sides of the ball in a game where the DiamondIQ model's lean toward the home team proved well founded.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalTB win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 59.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Sam Haggerty Single
Top 4th · off Zach Eflin
+6.5%
Ty France Strikeout
Top 2nd · off Zach Eflin
-5.8%
Luke Raley Double
Bot 3rd · off Bryce Miller
+5.5%
Jose Siri Grounded Into DP
Bot 5th · off Bryce Miller
-4.9%
Julio Rodríguez Single
Top 7th · off Robert Stephenson
+4.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Sam Haggerty+9.9%+1.3 RE24
Josh Lowe+7.2%+1.9 RE24
Osleivis Basabe+7.1%-0.7 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →