MLB Recap · September 10, 2023

Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

CLE1
Final
LAA2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CLE010000000180
LAA10100000-230

The Story

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 on September 10, 2023, at Angel Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model opening the game at a 53 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent in favor of Los Angeles. The Angels scored the decisive runs early, grabbing one in the first inning and another in the third, while Cleveland answered with a single run in the second. From there, the pitching on both sides held firm through the final six innings, leaving the Guardians unable to close the gap.

The game's most consequential sequence came in the top of the sixth inning, where Cleveland had a chance to shift momentum but instead saw it evaporate. Tyler Freeman drew a walk off Andrew Wantz that added 7.6 percent to Cleveland's win probability, briefly keeping the threat alive. However, Andrés Giménez followed with a lineout that cost the Guardians 7.0 percent, and Gabriel Arias then grounded into a double play that swung win probability 13.4 percent against Cleveland, effectively extinguishing the rally. Arias was involved in another damaging moment in the top of the ninth, striking out against Carlos Estévez at a cost of 7.1 percent. On the Los Angeles side, Kyren Paris contributed a flyout in the bottom of the eighth that, in context, added 6.9 percent to the Angels' win probability by preserving their lead.

Among the standout performers by DiamondIQ's metrics, Kyren Paris led all batters with a WPA of plus 7.3 percent, while Randal Grichuk posted the most productive run-environment contribution among hitters with a RE24 of plus 1.1 alongside a WPA of plus 6.4 percent. On the mound, Tanner Bibee led all pitchers with plus 16.0 percent WPA, followed closely by Kenny Rosenberg at plus 15.9 percent, with Estévez adding plus 15.2 percent to close things out. Cleveland finished with eight hits but managed only a single run, while Los Angeles secured the win on just three hits, relying on early-inning execution and strong pitching the rest of the way.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CLE bats firstFinalLAA win %CLE win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 53.3% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Gabriel Arias Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Andrew Wantz
-13.4%
Tyler Freeman Walk
Top 6th · off Andrew Wantz
+7.6%
Gabriel Arias Strikeout
Top 9th · off Carlos Estévez
-7.1%
Andrés Giménez Lineout
Top 6th · off Andrew Wantz
-7.0%
Kyren Paris Flyout
Bot 8th · off Eli Morgan
+6.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Kyren Paris+7.3%-0.2 RE24
Randal Grichuk+6.4%+1.1 RE24
Tyler Freeman+4.6%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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