Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-2 at Wrigley Field on September 10, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 55 percent pre-game home win probability foreshadowed, though the final reading reached 100 percent by game's end. The decisive stretch came in the bottom of the third inning, when Chicago erupted for three consecutive home runs off Brandon Pfaadt. Christopher Morel started the barrage with a blast worth plus 9.4 percent in win probability, Cody Bellinger followed immediately with one worth plus 8.6 percent, and Dansby Swanson added a third consecutive home run at plus 6.7 percent, a sequence that effectively broke the game open before Arizona had managed a run.

Arizona's most meaningful response came in the sixth inning, when Tommy Pham doubled off Kyle Hendricks for a plus 9.9 percent swing in win probability, momentarily tightening the game's outlook. That effort, however, was largely offset by Geraldo Perdomo's double play in the fifth, which swung win probability 9.9 percent in Chicago's favor and snuffed out a potential Diamondbacks rally. The D-backs finished with nine hits but were held to two runs against a Cubs pitching staff that received meaningful contributions from Kyle Hendricks, Mark Leiter Jr., and Jose Cuas, each adding roughly five percent in win probability to the Chicago ledger.

Dansby Swanson led all players by WPA at plus 13.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.3, reflecting his impact well beyond the home run itself, while Morel posted plus 10.0 percent WPA and Pham contributed plus 9.7 percent in a losing effort. Arizona's nine hits produced only two runs partly due to the double play in the fifth, and the Diamondbacks' error compounded their difficulties. The Cubs' three-homer third inning stood as the game's defining moment, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflecting Chicago's command from that point forward.