MLB Recap · September 9, 2023

Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

PIT8
Final
ATL4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PIT0030310018140
ATL0012001004121

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Atlanta Braves an 8-4 defeat at Truist Park on September 9, 2023, overcoming a pregame landscape that the DiamondIQ model had tilted heavily toward Atlanta, assigning the Braves a 72% win probability before first pitch. Pittsburgh built its advantage across two pivotal innings, and Atlanta never found a sustained answer despite finishing with 12 hits of its own.

The third inning proved to be the game's fulcrum. Ke'Bryan Hayes delivered a double off Dylan Dodd that shifted win probability 12.5 points in Pittsburgh's favor, and Bryan Reynolds followed with a home run off Dodd that added another 12.4 points, together swinging the game's outlook by roughly 25 percentage points in a single frame. The Pirates compounded their advantage in the fifth, when Jack Suwinski singled off Michael Tonkin for a 9.3-point swing and Ji Hwan Bae added another single off Tonkin worth 9.2 points, pushing Pittsburgh's cushion beyond Atlanta's reach. The Braves' most consequential moment came in the bottom of the fourth, when Ozzie Albies singled off Johan Oviedo for a 14.9-point swing, briefly tightening the contest before Pittsburgh pulled away for good.

Reynolds finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-17.3%, paired with a RE24 of plus-1.9, reflecting his outsized run-environment contribution. Albies led Atlanta's individual figures at plus-15.0% WPA despite the team's loss, while Ronald Acuna Jr. posted plus-11.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.4. Out of the Pittsburgh bullpen, Ryan Borucki led all pitchers with a plus-12.9% WPA, supported by Colin Holderman at plus-9.4% and Colin Selby at plus-5.2%, as the three combined to protect the lead through the game's final stages.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PIT bats firstFinalATL win %PIT win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 71.7% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ozzie Albies Single
Bot 4th · off Johan Oviedo
+14.9%
Ke'Bryan Hayes Double
Top 3rd · off Dylan Dodd
+12.5%
Bryan Reynolds Home Run
Top 3rd · off Dylan Dodd
+12.4%
Jack Suwinski Single
Top 5th · off Michael Tonkin
+9.3%
Jihwan Bae Single
Top 5th · off Michael Tonkin
+9.2%

Top Batters by WPA

Bryan Reynolds+17.3%+1.9 RE24
Ozzie Albies+15.0%+0.6 RE24
Ronald Acuña Jr.+11.7%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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