Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles held off a furious late rally by the Boston Red Sox to win a wild affair at Fenway Park on September 9, 2023, taking the game 13 to 12. The DiamondIQ model had pegged the Red Sox with a 41 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as Baltimore built and ultimately protected a lead through 23 combined hits between the two clubs.

The game's most decisive swing came in the top of the third inning, when Aaron Hicks drove a home run off Chris Sale, a play that shifted win probability by 25.4 percent in Baltimore's favor. Jordan Westburg added another significant blow with a sixth-inning home run off Zack Weiss, worth 13.0 percent in win-probability added. Boston kept the game tense, most notably in the bottom of the fourth when a fielding error on Justin Turner off Cionel Pérez swung things 13.4 percent toward Boston, and the Red Sox made a genuine push in the ninth, when Wilyer Abreu's single off Yennier Cano moved the needle 14.8 percent and Enmanuel Valdez's flyout to end the inning represented a 16.7 percent swing back toward Baltimore.

Among individual performers, Wilyer Abreu led all batters by the DiamondIQ model's estimate with a WPA of plus 28.6 percent and an RE24 of plus 3.6, with his ninth-inning work at the center of Boston's near-comeback. Aaron Hicks posted plus 27.5 percent WPA and plus 3.2 RE24, largely on the strength of his pivotal third-inning homer, while Justin Turner contributed plus 23.1 percent WPA and plus 3.4 RE24. On the mound, Shintaro Fujinami was the standout reliever for Baltimore, adding plus 15.2 percent WPA as the Orioles closed out a chaotic game that featured 25 combined runs and three errors between the two sides.