Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | - | 5 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Kansas City Royals 5-4 on September 8, 2023, at Rogers Centre, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game assigning Toronto a 76% win probability and finishing at 100% after a decisive seventh-inning rally sealed the outcome. The game was largely dormant through the first six innings, with Kansas City scratching across a run in the third and Toronto answering with one in the sixth on a Kevin Kiermaier triple off Alec Marsh that added 12.8 percentage points to Toronto's win probability. The contest then broke open dramatically in the seventh, when the Royals briefly threatened before the Blue Jays responded with four runs of their own to take command for good.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the seventh, where Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivered the single biggest swing of the game, a double off Carlos Hernandez that added 33.7 percentage points to Toronto's win probability, the largest single-play impact of the night. Bo Bichette followed with a single off Hernandez that contributed another 11.9 points, and together the two provided the spine of Toronto's four-run frame. Kansas City had briefly applied pressure in the top of the seventh when Nick Loftin ripped a triple off Trevor Richards that moved the needle 18.9 points in the Royals' favor, but Loftin was erased on a forceout off Jordan Romano in the eighth that swung 14.3 points back toward Toronto and effectively ended any realistic comeback bid.
The top performers by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability metrics were a mix from both sides. Bichette led all batters with a plus-20.5 WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.6, while Guerrero contributed plus-20.3 WPA and a team-best plus-1.6 RE24. Freddy Fermin added plus-17.6 WPA for Kansas City despite the loss. On the pitching side, Romano led all hurlers at plus-20.5 WPA, followed by Collin Snider at plus-17.9 and Alec Marsh at plus-10.8 despite allowing the Kiermaier triple. Kansas City finished with a costly error against Toronto's clean defensive sheet, a detail that factored into the final run differential in a game ultimately decided by Toronto's explosive seventh.