Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks shut out the Chicago Cubs 1-0 at Wrigley Field on September 8, 2023, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Chicago win beginning at 55% before the game and falling to 0% by the final out. Arizona's lone run came in the top of the eighth inning on a Corbin Carroll single off Mark Leiter Jr., a hit that shifted win probability by 14.1 percentage points in the Diamondbacks' favor. The Cubs had their best chance to respond in the bottom of the ninth, when Mike Tauchman drew a walk to push Arizona's win probability back toward uncertainty by 9.0 points, but Yan Gomes had already done critical damage to Chicago's cause in the eighth, getting caught stealing second base in a play that swung win probability 16.5 points against the Cubs.

Zac Gallen was the central figure of the game, finishing as the top performer on either side with a cumulative WPA of plus-46.5 percentage points. He navigated a tense ninth inning that saw Ian Happ reach on a forceout, a play that technically added 27.0 points of win probability for Chicago from the batter's perspective, before Nico Hoerner's flyout cost the Cubs 10.7 points and ended the threat. Jameson Taillon contributed meaningfully on the mound as well, posting a WPA of plus-26.6 points before handing matters over to Gallen, and Julian Merryweather added 8.3 points in relief. Arizona's offense was limited to four hits against two Cubs errors on the night, but Carroll's clutch single and the model's steadily shifting probabilities told the story of a game that was closer in feel than the line score suggested.